When transforming and upgrading foreign trade, it is essential to maintain composure
On May 8th, the General Administration of Customs released calculation data showing that imports and exports in April increased by 16.2% year-on-year. Comparing the data from March, not only is the growth rate slowing down, but this growth rate is also lower than the market's expectations. Has the momentum of stabilizing and improving foreign trade increased now changed?
Industry experts believe that it is normal for monthly foreign trade data to fluctuate due to factors such as base numbers and seasonality. Based on the data from the previous four months, the overall trend of stabilizing and improving foreign trade has not changed. The road to transformation and upgrading of foreign trade is a difficult one. The government and companies need to remain resolute, firmly implement policies, promote innovation, and accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading.
Data shaking is a normal phenomenon
The fluctuation of foreign trade data is a normal phenomenon, and overall, the trend of foreign trade stabilizing and improving has not changed, "said Li Jian, director of the Institute of Foreign Trade at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, in an interview with reporters.
Indeed, foreign trade data is wavering and moving forward. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in April of this year, China's total import and export value was 2.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.2% year-on-year. During this period, exports amounted to RMB 1.24 trillion, an increase of 14.3%; Imports amounted to 979.1 billion yuan, an increase of 18.6%; The trade surplus was 262.3 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6%. Compared to March, there has been a significant decline in import and export data, and the export managers' determination index has fallen by 0.4 to 50.5.
How do you view the decline in foreign trade data? Li Jian pointed out that from a calculation perspective, the decline in foreign trade growth rate in April is related to the higher base of the previous year, which cannot change the overall trend of stable and positive foreign trade. And there are more orders at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, which is the peak season for exports. The decline in orders in April is a normal phenomenon.
Li Jian emphasized that data from a certain period can better reflect the objective increase in foreign trade, and precisely illustrate that the fundamental trend of foreign trade stabilizing and improving has not changed. According to the calculation data, in the first four months of this year, the total import and export value of goods transactions in China was 8.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.3% compared to the same period last year. During this period, exports amounted to 4.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.7%; Imports amounted to 3.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.8%; The trade surplus was 715 billion yuan, narrowing by 26.2%.
The Baltic Inductive Freight Index, as a leading global trading data, is also announcing signals.
On March 28th, the Baltic Freight Index was 1338, reaching its highest value of the year, and then continued to decline, dropping to 994 by May 5th. These numbers indicate that global transactions are undergoing adjustments after experiencing a cycle of recovery, but this does not mean that the increase in foreign trade will enter a downward channel.
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the leading index of China's foreign trade import and export companies, after four consecutive months of month on month increases, adjusted equally in March and rose again by 0.5 in April, reaching 40.7.
According to online survey data, China's export manager index rose by 1 to 44.8 in the current month; The index of new export orders and the index of company induced costs increased by 1.8, 1.2 to 48.2, and 23.2 respectively, while the export manager determination index fell by 0.4 to 50.5.
Transformation and promotion still cannot be relaxed
In the long run, the future of foreign trade companies is still to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of demand, "said Cai Jiaxiang, Vice President of the China Association of Foreign Trade Economic Cooperation Companies, in an interview with reporters. Currently, some companies with strong innovation ability can still achieve a relatively high increase in export volume, while traditional export companies are facing increasing difficulties.
In fact, the pace of global freight transformation and upgrading is still accelerating. In the data released by the General Administration of Customs, it was pointed out that in the first four months, China's foreign trade imports and exports showed five major characteristics in terms of structural adjustment: firstly, the usual trade imports and exports increased by 21.6%, and the proportion in the total foreign trade increased to 56.5%; Secondly, there has been an increase in imports and exports to shopping malls such as Europe, the United States, Japan, and ASEAN, and the trend towards diversification has become increasingly significant; Thirdly, the proportion of imports and exports by private companies in China's total foreign trade value has increased to 37.6%; Fourthly, mechanical and electrical products, as well as traditional labor-intensive products, remain the main export drivers; Fifth, the import volume and price of bulk products such as iron ore, crude oil, and natural gas have all risen.
